Monthly market insights - July 2026 - Flipbook - Page 3
Memory Outlook
The pace of memory price increases is expected to
cool, though not reverse. TrendForce now forecasts
conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 13 to 18%
quarter-on-quarter in Q3, with NAND up 10 to 15%,
a marked slowdown from the roughly 60 to 75%
jumps seen in Q2 as consumer buyers reach their
affordability limit. UBS, for its part, expects a steeper
path, forecasting DRAM contract prices up 32% in Q3
and 18% in Q4, with NAND following at 30% and 12%.
Memory Contract Price Growth, QoQ: Q2 vs Q3 2026
Q2 2026 (Actual)
Q3 2026 (Forecast)
PCBs and Substrates Market
Little relief is expected on the materials side before
next year. China Merchants Securities projects the
copper-clad laminate price upcycle will extend into
the first half of 2027, as glass fibre and copper foil
supply remains structurally tight. Ajinomoto’s roughly
30% ABF build-up film increase, effective this quarter,
is still expected to work its way through to finished
substrate and PCB pricing over the coming months.
~72%
~60%
~16%
DRAM
module configurations single-component MLCC costs
have jumped by well over 100%, in one case reaching
229% quarter on quarter. Although MLCCs typically
account for a modest slice of total module cost, their
price swings are now rivalling memory as a driver
of overall bill-of-materials inflation, particularly in
smaller, lower-cost modules where memory carries
less absolute weight. With upstream raw material
costs and capacity reallocation squeezing passive
components much as they have squeezed DRAM
and NAND, distributors should treat MLCCs less as a
rounding error and more as a line item worth tracking
in its own right.
~12%
Capacity additions from suppliers such as Fulltech
and Kingboard should help at the margin, but are not
expected to close the gap before 2027. Distributors
should plan for lead times and allocation, rather than
price alone, to remain the binding constraint through
the rest of the year.
NAND
Source: Trendforce memory pricing survey, July 2026
Figure 2: Memory Contract Price Growth, QoQ: Q2
vs Q3 2026 Forecast
Server DRAM is expected to stay undersupplied
through the third quarter, per TrendForce, although
long-term supply agreements should temper the
increases customers actually see. PC DRAM forecasts
have just been revised upward too, to 15 to 20%
growth in Q3 and 3 to 8% in Q4, while most analysts
continue to place meaningful supply relief no earlier
than late 2027, with some pointing to 2028.
MLCCs Emerge as a Silent but Sizeable Cost Driver
in the Memory Squeeze
Multilayer ceramic capacitors, long treated as an
afterthought in bill-of-materials planning, are proving
to be one of the sharpest cost lines in this cycle.
Quectel’s latest cost pass-through notice shows MLCC
pricing climbing 5 to 20% industry wide, with Kemet
alone raising prices by 20 to 30%, while in some LTE
“
MLCC PRICING CLIMBING
5 TO 20% INDUSTRYWIDE, WITH KEMET ALONE
RAISING PRICES
BY 20 TO 30%
”
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